NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[meirluc]

[quoteGotcha, your generous on the 8 of 33. As Flip says the early pseudos(were removed from the 331). But even being conservative you show a 2 to 1 percentage of treatment over placebo post 36][/quote]

While my estimate is close to the worse case scenario, it may be not be that far from reality.

I am estimating that 15 of the 93 (16.1%) post 36(+) months survivors are SOC patients and 78 (83.9%) are Treatment patients. Since in this trial only 30% of the patients were SOC and 70% were Treatment patients, this hypothetical outcome is not bad at all.

I estimate that only 8 of the 99 SOC patients (8%) did not progress for a long time, therefore did not need DCVax-L and lived 36(+) months. By definition all 8 patients are in the group of 33 SOC because they never crossed over. That group of 33 most likely contained a small number of the healthiest patients (8?) who did not progress as well as a larger number of very sick patients (25?) who may have evented early.

I therefore don't look at 8 out of 33 SOC patients who turned out to be long livers but at 8 out of 99 SOC patients (a mere 8%) who did not progress and therefore outlived 36 months.

15 of 99 SOC patients (7+8) surviving 36 months does not seem to be an unreasonable estimate when one considers that an estimated 78 Treatment patients accomplished the same thing.