It’s my bet that when they unblind, they find that all the unmethylated survivors at or over 3 years were treatment patients. Should this turn out to be the case, that would represent a tremendous step forward for unmethylated patients, for whom nothing seems to wo
I hope that you are right. Some time ago I estimated that of the approximately 23 unmethylated post 36(+) months survivors, 20 will be Treatment and 3 will be SOC.
However, for the reasons you stated above, I hope that I am wrong and that you are right although even with 20 long living Treatment vs. 3 long living SOC and given the 70% To 30% DCVax-L/SOC numerical patient ratio, DCVax-L would still have a clear edge.
With respect to methylated GBM, I hope that the IDH mutation work will shed some more light on the survival promoting ability of DCVax-L.
If long living (e.g. 3-5 year survivors) SOC patients, have a larger proportion of patients with the methylated GBM carrying the IDH1 mutation than the proportion of such patients found in the Treatment group, the importance of DCVax-L would be even more obvious.
For example if 4 of 7 Post 5 year SOC survivors have a GBM with the IDH1 mutation and 4 of 35 post 5 year Treatment survivors have a GBM carrying the mutation, the positive role of DCVax-L would become more apparent because the long survival of the SOC group seems to be more associated with the mutation's presence. DCVax-L may be important but so is the mutation.
In fact in this example, if we look at post 5 year survivors whose GBM did not carry the mutation, we would end up with 31 Treatment patients and only 3 SOC patients. This would be a ratio of more than 10 to 1 (31 vs. 3) in favor of the long living Treatment patients whereas before exclusion of long livers with the mutation, the ratio of long living Treatment to long living SOC patients was 5:1 (35 vs. 5). If this is correct, even in the absence of the mutation, early DCVax-L treatment would seem to be very efficacious whereas to achieve a prolonged survival of late treated patients, a co factor (IDH1 mutation) would often be required.
Time will tell whether the data concerning the mutation will be used to further highlight the importance of L.