Good morning!
Thinking more on the subject of "what happens next?"-----
Big down days rarely last more than a few in number--- in a row, that is. We've exceeded that in this week's stock market.
More often than not, the market will bounce hard, reversing sour trends. Oh, some will proclaim it's a dead cat bounce but they're just vying for a bit of fame. The fact is that awesome downward drifts always show stronger life within a few days of the negative trend having hit full stride. We are fast approaching that point now.
So that has me expecting a conspicuous trend reversal by Wednesday. However, a few things could get in the way of history repeating:
1. Covid-29 news coverage might grow even more dire than the medical community sees. Right now, much attention is being given to the younger parts of our population including the 20-35 year old sector. There's probably a lot of denial trapped within the fabric of youth. And I figure it's to be assumed that seniors and previously compromised individuals with greater vulnerability will readily subscribe to strongly advised virus protocols. Yet I'm seeing people flocking to area flea markets with little to no elbow room and---nobody is even wearing a mask! My wife an I left an enormous flea market last week within a minute of having paid the admission fee. The sign posted at the entrance stated clearly that all attendees must wear a mask yet the first fifteen venders I counted had no masks at all. And JoAnn and I were the only visitors within view actually wearing masks.
This is not only here just a few minutes from the Mexican border.
It comes to mind now because I'm realizing that we, as a nation, have yet to accept a reality responsible for decimating enormous bunches of our population. We have virus testing sites fifteen minutes east and west of home with lines of anxious customers waiting as long as thirteen hours to get tested.
What I'm left with is all the above while also in the audience is a group of die-hards insisting that none of this is real, it's a political conspiracy they refer to as a "plandemic."
I don't do politics, period. But I am seeing needs unmet due to resistance.
Avita will not be wagged like some mangy dog with its tail being manipulated. Burns continue to occur through all circumstances. People suffer in various ways. And RCEL will have its day as it's the most wonderful solution for numerous reasons oft stated on this board.
However, we need to recognize that there's debris on the highway and it will run interference. Denial, political bias, youthful exuberance---and much more---these certainly may explain part of the crud in the streets. But I'm seeing something more basic to humanity that I can't ignore:
Power and control
We hear this phrase all the time but I doubt everybody recognizes exactly what it is and why it continues to exist at all...
If we dig down under political motivations and various views of social unrest, anger and a pervasive sense of indifference from fellow humans politically connected or not---something few could deny:
If everybody felt in control of life, I don't think we'd be seeing wholesale unrest.
So flea markets and political rallies and congested bars and restaurants and the like may not be congregations of dumb people or even folks in denial. It may be that these are simply people feeling out of sorts because the virus has disrupted our way of life...a very comfortable way of life, formerly, that is.
2. The stock market will usually return to workable status within several days of spiraling downwards because investors are people and people will not accept a dramatic loss of power and control. Life without control is life without meaning for many, many among us. So we look at our portfolio changes over the past week and in my case I dropped 17.7% For me this is enormous as it clearly demonstrates the plain truth: I have greatly diminished control over my estate. I'm reminded of a forest fire that ravaged the family caveman's first escape route---the family tree.
Back in February I moved out of oil and gas stocks altogether and moved more strongly into biotechs, knowing that it would offer more compelling opportunity. This week I pushed more strongly than ever.
It's easy to see that we will soon move out of the panic of doom and gloom and shift towards a more optimistic stance. Recognizable patterns will once again come into view. Stocks built upon a foundation of discretionary spending will again show signs of life but medical issues and financial institutions will thrive as they surely must.
So then, winding this up, I'm of the belief that over the course of the coming week we will reclaim considerable turf lost over this week now gone. I'll be in the hunt to buy shares in Monday's premarket and I'll not be deterred. Hopefully that won't call for a laxative.
NVF*
*Not Very Funny. But you can laugh anyway.
lol
AI
