Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures - Pressing Higher »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 27, 2020

NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 180350 and is trading up about 0.63% for the year from last year's settlement of 179210. Reflecting on the Reversal System, the last Reversal on the Yearly level to be elected was Bullish. The Quarterly level, however, shows that the last Reversal to be elected was Bearish back on Wed. Jan. 1, 2020. On the Monthly level, the last Reversal to be elected was Bullish showing that the long-term level is still positive. The Weekly level shows that the last Reversal to be elected was also Bullish along with the Monthly and Yearly levels indicating and overall positive stance. So far, this market has remained below the previous year's high and it has broken under last year's low. Nevertheless, this market is trading above last year's settlement.


Always remember that the true definition of a bull or bear market is defined by its international value expressed in the major currencies. A market which is rising in proportion to the decline in the local currency is merely a market readjusting to the decline in the value of the currency. Do not be fooled by this type of trend for it is merely currency inflation given everything has a true international value which will be arbitraged.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading above one indicating pivot implying that this market is in a positive position with support at 177533 and resistance at 181116 and 182566 for this next trading session. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 177483 and 179616. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 180716 183133. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

OVERVIEW ANALYSIS

The NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in an uptrend for the past 2 days closing above the previous session's high by 0.52%. The broader rally has unfolded over the past 9 days. Currently, the market is trading somewhat bullish on our indicators still showing overhead resistance but percentage wise, it is trading only marginally higher less than 1%. Our oscillators are all still pointing upward while our internal momentum models have also remained in a bullish posture.

This market has been making only a reaction high failing to exceed the previous high of 189500 leaving this market in a negative position overall.

Bear in mind that we have made a new high this week changing the Weekly Bearish Reversals once this week is concluded.

At present, the market remains neutral on the momentum indicator yet bullish on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend is bullish and our cyclical strength is neutral.

This market is also trading above the bank of eight moving average indicators also suggesting it is still above underlying support at this moment.

This market still has not yet exceeded the last key high of 189500 established back on 06/01. However, an opening BELOW 178425 in the next session would warn that the high of this session may stand at least temporarily.


Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance
Today...... 176250
Previous... 183442
Tomorrow... 180600

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 175517
Weekly ....... 172867
Monthly ...... 139783
Quarterly .... -152483
Yearly ....... 139767

Note: Negative means the market is trading below that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

As of now, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 116300 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.

Immediately, we have broken below last week's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Weekly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 856 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A weekly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone. Factually, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 9014 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.

RECREATING TIME

Note: Time is relative so this model creates time so we have a Yearly Bullish/Bearish Reversal Each Day. This allows us to see if the broader trend is shifting instead of having to wait for year-end.

Based upon our Dynamic Yearly Models where time is relative, assuming today Fri. 26th would be constructively the end of the year, we are currently trading above all Dynamic Yearly Bullish Reversals for today's theoretical year-end closing. This is on all four dimensions implying we are still in a broader bullish trend for now. Keep in mind, that these are dynamic reversals good EXCLUSIVELY for today only.

We closed the previous month at 149730which has moved up from the previous month which wasbearish. The next Monthly Minor Bearish Reversal resides at 138540 whereas the next Monthly Major Bearish Reversal is to be found at 121340.

END OF QUARTER

We are nearing the closing of this quarter with just 4 days to go. The market is trading quite strong above our first projected target which rests at 144690. The projected overhead technical resistance stands at 220233. The projected technical support resides at 103350. The next Quarterly Minor Bullish Reversal stands at 238392. The next Quarterly Minor Bearish Reversal resides at 141540 whereas the next Quarterly Major Bearish Reversal is to be found at 139640. Immediately, the market is somewhat bearish on our indicating range models. However, the monthly level remains moderately bullish for now yet the weekly level is also somewhat bullish. We also have a Minor Monthly Bearish which is a bit further from the market right now. This resides at 138540 and therefore, even a month-end closing below this Reversal will signal a sharp decline to retest of support is likely. Still, we do see underlying support forming in the 155540

Therefore, when we put this all together, the various timing levels require our focus on the following Bearish Reversals for the close of this quarter. The numbers to watch are: 141540 and 138540.

BROADER OVERVIEW

While the historical perspective of the of this market included a decline from the major high established back in 2011 moving into a major low in 2018, the market has bounced back for the last 2 years. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2016.


This past year alone, saw a sharp price decline of about 19%.

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW


Now, turning to our Energy Models, the market is making new intraday highs in price and our Energy Models are flipping from negative to positive. The low on our Energy Model took place 06/25/2020. Therefore, this immediate rally may prove to be short-term unless this model begins to create new highs.

OVERALL TREND

The NY Silver COMEX Futures is in bearish position on the quarterly short-term level of our momentum model yet neutral on the trend indicatorThe NY Silver COMEX Futures has penetrated last year's low leaving that as an 1 year high. while the broader term is also neutral to bearish. The NY Silver COMEX Futures is in a neutral position on the weekly short-term level of our model while the broader term is neutral to bullish implying that the long-term bull market is still holding. Overall, the posture is generally bullish for now.

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