Kaival Brands Innovations Group Inc (KAVL)

[daiello]

Some interesting calculations...

Favs agreement went through on April 3.

In the 10Q it states that Favs accounted for $8,003,396 in revenue and also 32% of accounts receivable (meaning it was most likely an order placed right before 4/30 and not yet paid hence why it's not considered revenue yet), so another $1,028,450. Total orders of $9M between 4/3 and 4/30.

Assuming $9M/month times 12 months we'd be at $108M for the year through Favs. If they stay around 36% of the overall revenue, which I'd suspect it won't as more larger distributors start picking up Bidi Sticks, then we'd be at a minimum of $300M revenue for the year overall (assuming minimal to no growth month over month).

For a comparison, Juul generated $2B in revenue in 2018. In July 2018 it was valued at roughly $15B, and by December 2018 it was valued at $38B while estimating $3.4B in revenue for 2019, so roughly a 7-10x revenue multiple.

At $300M sales our valuation could be in the $2.1Billion to $3Billion range, and based on our O/S, we're looking at a PPS of $3.67 - $5.24.

Now, the real fun happens if they move any of the common shares to preferred to lower the O/S. If the O/S gets cut in half, the public float would be 11.5% (good enough for OTCQB) and our share price would be $7.3 to $10.5 to match the valuations above.

Just something to think!