Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Bouf]

Blue—

The reality is that you can turn a vote at oral argument some of the time, depending on the strength of the advocacy. Probably less so in the federal circuit because they hear a much more limited docket than other CTA, which hear everything from federal criminal to social security to tort cases. The federal Circuit is the most specialized of all the federal Courts of Appeal. All the other CTA courts are true generalist courts, so I would say odds are higher to turn a vote in some other CTA than the Fed. Cir. That said, you only need to turn one vote on a three judge panel, so oral argument is that much more important at the CTA level.

Justice Ginsburg was right when she said it’s very hard to win a case on oral argument, but you can lose one. Here, AMRN has the burden to show reversible error by the trial court, so it will be on the offensive. Generics will be playing defense to try to justify the decision. Not sure about you all, but I always prefer to be on the offensive when the stakes are high. This adds 10-15 percent to my assessment of AMRN’s chance of prevailing.

B