Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[CaptBeer]

Earlier today in Raf’s poll I posted my numbers as follows:

Reverse: 49%
Affirm: 1%
Remand: 1%
Settle: 49%

Some folks have asked me why I chose 49% for settlement. Here’s why:
As I pointed out last week on StockTwits, in a two-part series titled “Dog Finally Catches Car, Now what”? H&DR have latched onto the VASCEPA VHTG indication, but the value of that is extremely limited. They will not have any marketing power for the REDUCE-IT indication. REDUCE-IT is basically a “Poison-Pill” that spoils it for everyone.

APOTEX clearly sees the position that H&DR have placed themselves in by settling with Amarin, thus insuring themselves a place at the head-of-the-line in August 2029, along with TEVA.

Singer’s Brief and his final reply this Friday has & will open their eyes to the fact that in the remote chance of Affirmance (my guess is 1%), they “Caught the car”, but won NOTHING. If they get Reversed, (my guess 49%), they lost everything. If they “Settle”, (my guess 49%), they get a front row seat to the big show in 2029.

A VACATUR and Settlement will deter any other suitors for a generic VASCEPA until 2029.
Cheers, CaptBeer