Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[sstyles]

What should JT do? Great question and there are no easy answers at this point. This is where JT & Singer need to earn their millions of dollars in compensation.

The simple answer is well just go through with the appeal. But what if you lose? What contingencies are in place.... Will the other non-contested patents in the Orange Book truly prevent generics from entering. If so, Wall Street has not picked up on this.

Is a settlement still possible with a vacatur. Will some sort of agreement be reached on the doorsteps of the court room.

Any BO now would be significantly discounted given the uncertainty with the appeal. Sure there are ways it could be structured to take into account the appeal with a CVR but to date there has been no BO so what does that tell you. Likely significant valuation gap between what AMRN management believes it is worth and what a willing buyer is willing to pay.

What is clear to me is that the generics are crafty and are trying to do all they can to add to the confusion with their brief. The fish oil line as previously cited is just one example. This will still come down to the judges and that carries risk. We are praying to have a judge on the panel named Newman who is in her 90s. Let that sink in. If we don't get Newman will the other judges be paying close enough attention to grasp everything at stake.

We are within 10 days of our reply being filed by Singer and then oral arguments should be scheduled. There is a lot hanging in balance here including Europe.

JT mentioned holistic several times on the last call but only he knows truly what his ultimate play is here. It has been mentioned he is risk averse but going to trial again seems to run counter to that. Where are the Baker Brothers in all of this? Do you think JT keeps his job if AMRN loses the appeal? Does this factor into his decision.

This is game theory at its finest. The fortunate thing for us is the calendar will force a decision soon. Stay tuned.