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Re: iwasadiver post# 289897

Wednesday, 06/17/2020 7:25:36 AM

Wednesday, June 17, 2020 7:25:36 AM

Post# of 720874
Hi 'Diver.
Personally, I think a second wave in the Fall/Winter just isn't going to happen. The virus is dying on its feet already.
New Zealand is in the middle of its cold season, and has virtually no cases.
I don't think Covid is weather/ temperature dependent at all.
SARS and MERS just 'went away' and never came back...
Each country or region goes through a wave, where case (and deaths) rise for a month, followed by a gradual and persistent decline.
It's the same pattern across the world.
All the fearmongering about a second spike if social distancing restrictions are lifted too early, is just that; fearmongering.
Primary schools have been back for 2 month in Denmark; no spike.
Spain and Italy are re-opening inward tourism. Deaths in most of Europe are now down to a tiny trickle, even as shops and workplaces re-open.
The wave in Mexico (Mexican wave?!) is at its height, but it will follow the same pattern as everywhere else in time.

As regards HCQ, the French experience is an eye-opening national scandal, similar to the UK. There is a strict ban in France on community doctors prescribing HCQ. And they have the worst cases to deaths in the world. Just under 20%. Shocking.


Prof Christian Perronne is just about the most eminent expert in infectious diseases in France and he is speaking out about the scandal. In his estimation, 25k out 30k Covid deaths in France could have been avoided had widespread use of HCQ (ideally with Zinc and / or Azithromycin) been employed at first symptom stage.

Here he is interviewed:-





And Pr Didier Raoult, Directeur de l'IHU Méditerranée Infection gives results of 3737 patients treated in Marseille.
As a hospital Prof, he has been able to employ HCQ with nearly all of these, as long as they have presented before the cytokine storm stage (when it is getting too late for HCQ). By the ARD stage, nothing much appears to work. And we know the poor success rate of mechanical ventilation, and the permanent lung fibrosis damage at this stage made worse by venting.
Tocilizumab (anti-IL6) works for Car-T patients who go into cytokine storm. Indeed it has to be available on standby in any centre administering Car-T.

At his Marseille hospital death rates are:-
ICU: 16%.
Hospital: 5%.
Treated as outpatient: 0.6%.

Here Pr Raoult gives a summary of outcomes at his hospital and a good diagram of their recommended treatments by disease stage.



The other useful home self-diagnostic that some French community doctors recommend to ordinary citizens is a simple $20 finger oximeter, which can help to distinguish between breathlessness caused by anxiety, and real low blood / oxygen levels.
But as I'm sure I don't have to tell you, the 'stay at home, self isolate, don't go the doctor' message means that many infected individuals get no treatment, no HCQ (which nips it in the bud), and simply present at the ER way too late.

(Don't know what your French is like; both those YT links are in French, but YT auto-translate gives you the gist.)

Regards.
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