NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[meirluc]

Hi longfellow,

Here is my survival estimate of The 293 Treatment (T) and Placebo/Control (PC) patients with methylated (METH+) and unmethylated (METH-) GBM at 24, 36 and 60 months post surgery.


NUMBER OF SURVIVORS AT 24, 36 AND 60 MONTHS

24 months, METH+, T = 72
24 months, METH+, PC = 16
survival ratio T/PC = 4.5

36 months, METH+, T = 55
36 months, METH+, PC = 9
survival ratio T/PC - 6.1

60 months, METH+, T = 39
60 months, METH+ PC = 5
survival ratio T/PC = 7.8

24 months, METH-, T = 47
24 months, METH-, PC = 9
survival ratio T/PC = 5.2

36 months, METH-, T = 20
36 months, METH-, PC = 3
survival ratio T/PC = 6.7

60 months, METH-, T = 9
60 months, METH-, PC = 1
survival ratio T/PC = 9.0

Please note that for both the meth+ and meth- groups, the survival ratios T/PC always increase with increasing time on trial. Furthermore, at all three timelines (24, 36, 60 months), the T/PC survival ratio is always somewhat higher in the METH- group than it is in the METH+ group.
If this estimate is correct than it would seem that although the percentage of long living METH+ treatment patients is far greater than it is for their METH- counterparts, the survival ratios of T/PC is still greater in the METH- group than it is in the METH+ group. If true, it suggests that even for the METH- group, early DCVax-L treatment is a considerable plus.

Finally, I am guessing that of the 5-6 36(+) months survivors who belonged to the group of 38 vanguard patients, 3 would survive 60(+) months. Since I estimated 54 such long livers among the 293 patients whose Meth status is known, the total number of 60(+) months survivors would equal 57 patients.

I hope that I am not too far from reality.