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NY Gold Nearest Futures - Moving Higher »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 30, 2020

NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 175170 and is trading up about 15% for the year from last year's settlement of 152310. We did elect one Daily Bullish Reversal. This market has elected Bullish Reversals on all five time levels suggesting it is still in a bullish posture.


There is no single algorithm that you can devise or cycle that will predict every turn in a market. The reason for this is because such analysis is attempting to be employed in total isolation. Everything is connected. The wild-card which creates unexpected panics in markets will typically come from an external source inspired even from overseas.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading above one indicating pivot implying that this market is in a positive position with support at 172926 and resistance at 175733 and 177266 for this next trading session. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 173503 and 173903. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 175803 176423. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

OVERVIEW ANALYSIS

The NY Gold Nearest Futures has been in an uptrend for the past 3 days closing above the previous session's high. The broader rally has peaked with the last high established at 177580 back on 05/18 9 days ago. Up to now, we have not yet elected any Bearish Reversals from that high. Clearly, this high was formed after a rally of 19 days.

Currently, the market is trading somewhat bullish on our indicators still showing overhead resistance but percentage wise, it is trading only marginally higher less than 1%.

Nevertheless, we have elected 1 long-term Bullish Reversal suggesting that the market should now rally from hereat least on a closing basis as long as it holds above 172530 intraday. At present, we see overhead projected resistance forming at 179083.

At present, the market remains bullish on the short-term levels of our indicators while the long-term trend is bullish and our cyclical strength is neutral. At this instant, the market remains within our trading envelope in a bullish position.

This market is also trading above the bank of eight moving average indicators also suggesting it is still above underlying support at this moment.

This market still has not yet exceeded the last key high of 177580 established back on 05/18. Theoretically speaking, the Downtrend Line technical resistance stands above the market at 177039 which must be exceeded and then hold it as support thereafter in order to imply a breakout. Failure to sustain above this technical trend line will warn that the market has only faded this projection. A closing back below it will warn of a retest of underlying support is likely. However, an opening BELOW 173990 in the next session would warn that the high of this session may stand at least temporarily.

We did close above the previous session's Projected Technical Resistance indicator which was 172100 settling previous at 172830. The current rally resistance for this session was 174695 which we also closed above settling currently at 175170 implying the market is holding for now. However, the Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session will be 176026, which is still above the current closing. While we did close above the indicator in the current trading session, it is above the closing warning we either must open above it or close above it to expect this market will continue a sharp rally. However, a lower opening and a failure to even make a new high in the next session would warn of a retest of support.

Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance
Today...... 174695
Previous... 172100
Tomorrow... 176026

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 170720
Weekly ....... 169680
Monthly ...... 150723
Quarterly .... 136607
Yearly ....... 112340

Note: Negative means the market is trading below on that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

Up to now, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 254 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.

RECREATING TIME

Note: Time is relative so this model creates time so we have a Yearly Bullish/Bearish Reversal Each Day. This allows us to see if the broader trend is shifting instead of having to wait for year-end.

Based upon our Dynamic Yearly Models where time is relative, assuming today Fri. 29th would be constructively the end of the year, we are currently trading above all Dynamic Yearly Bullish Reversals for today's theoretical year-end closing. This is on all four dimensions implying we are still in a broader bullish trend for now. Keep in mind, that these are dynamic reversals good EXCLUSIVELY for today only.

BROADER OVERVIEW

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Nearest Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2019, the market has pulled back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2019.

This market is still what we classify as a Bull Market given its strong posture above our Monthly to Yearly indicating models while the Weekly is still positive but showing signs of overhead resistance.

This past year alone, saw a price decline of about 7.45%.

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

After the historical high was established during 2020, a major low was created on 04/21/2020 at 166620 which was 28 days from that major high. The Uptrend line resides at 170540 providing the technical underlying support. The top of the Uptrend Channel stands at 178120 which provides the general overall trading channel and only exceeding that on a closing basis will signal a real breakout to the upside while a break of the bottom defined by the Uptrend Line will signal a move to the downside thereafter.

Meanwhile, the Downtrend Line from that major high of 2020 to the subsequent reaction high of 177580 formed 24 days thereafter resides at 177039. This is providing the visual technical resistance which we have remained below at this moment in time.

The more recent Downtrend Line constructed from the last high of 177580 to the subsequent reaction high of 175760 stands at 168480 while drawing a channel provides us with support at 155560. A break of this support with a closing below it will suggest a correction is unfolding. However, an intraday penetration of this support with a close back above would suggest that market could pause briefly.

Focusing on our Energy Models, the market is making new intraday highs in price and our Energy Models are flipping from negative to positive. The low on our Energy Models too place 2 days ago. Therefore, this immediate rally may prove to be short-term unless this model begins to create new highs.

OVERALL TREND

The NY Gold Nearest Futures is in a bullish position on our broader long-term models reflecting that bull market remains in play. Looking at the daily short-term level, this market is still bullish while the broader term is neutral to bullish. Overall, the posture is generally bullish for now.

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