Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Chris2125]

AMRN does still have some leverage in negotiations, although it doesn't appear that way. They have a ton of cash ~$624 million, ~$900 million in loss carryforwards. JT previously reiterated the interest for Europe and for Amarin globally. They need to hit the ground running in Europe, not wait for approval. We all know they can't GIA. JT reiterates investors don't want him to sell rights to Europe, so where does that leave us? BO. What if they lost the appeal? What if it gets remanded back to Du? Then Amarin loses all leverage and BP steals Europe/ROW for pennies on the dollar. At that point the BOD likely gets rid of JT and there goes his stock options. The conservative CPA in him tells me he won't make the same mistake twice. I could be wrong. That would be reckless. You don't think BP rather pay $40 now than wait for appeal later this year and pay much more. They got their wish with the trial...time will tell

Chris, I know people keep harping on this, but how would a reasonable deal get done now? How can you place a value on the company with an uncertainty of this size looming?

To even consider a ROW + CVR deal, you'd need more certainty on Europe. You won't likely have that until later this year. And by then you may well have a decision on the appeal.

It's going to be another giant binary event here, and you either hold your breath, or you move to a more derisked strategy -- e.g. dump stock and buy out of the money options, or buy puts on your stock.

I think stamping our feet and demanding a time machine that lets us go back and make a deal isn't going to help. We need to be sober here.