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Tuesday, 05/19/2020 4:01:12 PM

Tuesday, May 19, 2020 4:01:12 PM

Post# of 218
Silver is starting to look near term overbought, with the RSI-Relative Strength Indicator for SLV now way up to 78. Levels above 70 indicate near term overbought territory. In 2016 and 2019, the SLV got up to a reading of 85 on the RSI before reversing, and a few more up days and SLV should be in that approx area (85).

The silver miner ETF (SIL) is at 74 on the RSI scale, and the small cap silver miner ETF (SILJ) is at 75. So a pullback is coming, but there may be a few more up days to go. Of course if you are long term buy/hold with these then don't worry about it.

Gold isn't as near term overbought yet, with the RSI for GLD at only 61, GDX at 68, and GDXJ at 71.

The S+P 500 still has room to rise, with an RSI reading of 57. I figure at minimum the S+P will test the 200 MA (2998). Once thru that level then it will become support instead of resistance. The S+P 500 ETF (SPY) has already been testing the 200 MA, yesterday and today. I'm figuring the S+P may have to hover around 3000 for a while, testing/re-testing, and 3100 could be a tough nut to crack in the near term.

Fwiw, my working hypothesis is we have more near term upside, maybe to 3000-3100 over the next few weeks, but then the danger level rises fast since by then we should see virus cases rebounding if they're going to. I predict (a guess) that they will rebound, at least enough to re-spook the market. Not necessarily a re-tank to the March lows, but back down to test the 50 MA (2716). So a fluid situation at the moment.



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