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Monday, 05/18/2020 9:00:10 PM

Monday, May 18, 2020 9:00:10 PM

Post# of 426504
Please, for the love of god, hedge your position and buy puts this time folks. It boggles the mind that someone who has risked a majority of their retirement on a stock wouldn’t hedge a binary event that could totally crush the stock.

Insurance is still very cheap - the September 7 strike puts are about $1.30, the 8’s are about $1.60. Here is how you convince yourself to buy puts: your cost to buy the puts is a small fraction of what most of you are expecting this stock to gain in price if AMRN wins ~ it’s negligible and it will significantly reduce your losses should AMRN lose. If AMRN loses we probably hit $4 again if not lower within days of the verdict - that makes those 7 strike puts worth at least $3 and you can then close them and pocket the money while waiting for the Europe deal to prop the stock back up some before finally selling.

I’ll give you a real world example. My mother had 10,000 shares in her IRA at about a cost basis of $21 pre trial. She purchased 21 strike puts with a June expiration in January to cover her full position in case of a loss. I think the cost was around $3 per contract and she bought 100 contracts. She spent about $30K to cover her $210K position. If AMRN won then we know the stock goes to 30+ so still a nice gain, we know what happened when AMRN lost. So the day the stock tanked those puts went to ~$17 per contract. She closed them and then had a break even share price of $7, which is pretty much where we are today. She will buy puts again once she gets a handle on when the verdict will be.

Insurance is cheap relative to the potential gain in share price with a win. Don’t gamble your retirement away.

Oh, and don’t pay any attention to Dmiller when he speaks of options. He revealed his ignorance today and is clearly out of his lane.
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