Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[TempePhil]

AVXL stock price with positive PDD results is:

When Biogen recently claimed a drug with Alz efficacy, their market cap went up $18billion, within a day or two. This is what the market immediately valued an Alz drug at, taking into account PE ratio, sentiment, etc.
Also, there are 5.8 million americans with Alz, and 1 million americans with Parkinson's(PD). Then the market cap for PD should be 1/5.8 of $18B...which is $3.1B.

Given Avxl shares at $3.50 and mkt cap of $217M, (3.1/0.217) gives a potential SP of $50.

With positive PDD trial news, Avxl share price could go to $50.

This is a back of napkin calculation for risk reward thoughts. So, if there is NO success in the PDD trial, maybe the SP goes to $4 or $3.5?

As a side note, these figures have been discussed within my investment group as well.