Saturday, May 16, 2020 3:51:57 PM
58.4 months is where the K/M curve crosses 50%. The is the best estimate (unless somebody knows of a time bias) of where the true median would be if all the data was available. BTW, the K/M is not complicated math. Start at 100%. Every time somebody dies step down by the percent that just died. That is it. No assumptions about anything.
45.9 - 94.5 is the 95% confidence interval but does not mean what many think. Even if all the data exists there will still be a wide CI because it is a measure of what the underlying distribution being sampled is. It is not an indicator of the error estimate on K/M vs the trial full dateset median.
What I mean is this. Say the trial comes in at 61 months. The K/M would converge on that as you get more data. And with all data it would be exact. But it is still only these 331 patients. If you took the entire universe, it might come in at 65 or 55 or whatever. That is what the CI is looking at.
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