Hi Guys,
I had a "social distance" visit with my friend Bob last night and he
asked me to post something here.
1) no, no one is paying Bob, if there was someone who would pay him
they should be paying ME instead!
2) the recent PR announcing the resumption of business at Prodigy in Vietnam is what I have been waiting for.
2 a) of course the PPS went down, any PR that is not announcing current
income/profit will only make the price go down because people have been
waiting for first profit for a long time and that is all they want to hear.
2 a 1)ditto for the recent science PR, not what people want to hear.
3) below is a speculative time line for KBLB's progress from this point forward.
3 a) I am not an employee of KBLB; no one is paying me anything;
I am no longer a major stockholder of KBLB having been forced by illness
and financial burdens to sell most of my shares;
I have no inside information. This is purely speculation based upon general
knowledge, past KBLB history and intelligent extrapolation;
there are no guarantees against epidemic, earthquake, fire, flood, etc. that
might change these estimates as things were just changed by the spread of the SARS-2 virus.
Life is Uncertain, Live With It!
3 b) I am assuming that Vietnam operations are at a standstill,
most of the KBLB-transgenic worm population there has been destroyed and a
total Bio-Restart is needed.
3 b 1) Note that the physical infrastructure built up in Vietnam is still
intact and the Vietnam employee base is also intact and now more loyal and
motivated than before due to the support they received during this crisis
from KBLB and Prodigy and Kim Thompson and the head of Prodigy.
4) Speculative Timeline:
A) Within the next 10 days (abt 5/20/2020)
John Rice will travel to Vietnam with 1 million new frozen eggs.
(OOM 100K< N < 10M)
A 1) Assumptions: KT, JR, etc. are not stupid. They knew this had to
happen so have been producing and storing eggs in their US
facilities from the start.
A similar # will remain in the US for breeding here.
(ie never put all your eggs in one basket)
B) The eggs will be hatched and the next generation of
KBLB-transgenic worms will begin abt 5/25/2020
C) more eggs will be sent from the US and eventually produced in
Vietnam such that a process pipeline will be established with
a new cohort of worms launched ever week or 2 weeks.
C 1) This is needed because of the feeding rates of the growing worms
In the first week the tiny worms eat very little, most of the
food is consumed by the worms in the last week before spinning.
D) The first cohort of worms will reach spinning cocoon stage in
abt. 45 days (7/10/2020)
First silk will be available for delivery abt. 7/17-23/2020
Those of the first cohort allowed to pupate and mate and lay
will produce eggs in about 60 days (7/25/2020) but I expect this
to be a small fraction.
Eggs for the first few cohorts will likely come mostly from the US.
D 1) I expect the first batch to be relatively small, a few hundred
pounds, but this will be enough to initiate the first customer
contract. Remember that wholesale supply contracts are usually
for future delivery over time, so a contract for delivery of
10 tons of silk over the next year can easily be initiated
with a first delivery of 500 pounds.
E) THIS IS A PIPELINE PROCESS!
If the first delivery is 500 lbs on 8/1/2020 then the next 500 lbs
will be delivered 8/8/2020, then 8/15/2020 and so on.
F) A purposefully conservative estimate of KBLB silk production by
Prodigy Textiles (Vietnam) for the remainder of the calendar year
2020.
8/1/2020 300 lbs first delivery
Aug. 2020 total 300 lbs, 300 lbs, 500 lbs, 500 lbs, 500 lbs.
Aug. 2020 Total = 1 ton
Sept. 2020 Total = 1.5 ton
Oct. 2020 Total = 2 tons
Nov. 2020 Total = 2 tons
Dec. 2020 Total = 3 tons
---------------------------
Year 2020 Total = 9 tons (Year 2021 Total possibly 30 tons)
G) It is obviously very difficult and uncertain for me to estimate
the total factory production capacity of the Prodigy Vietnam silk
works or the rate of expansion of that capacity.
The population growth rate of silkworms is easy, the industrial
capacity expansion rate is difficult.
Another factor that must enter these calculations at some point
is the limits of growth, the world market capacity.
I believe that these limits are comparatively very high.
I would guess that the world market for KBLB's silks will exceed
100 Tons / Year as a near term minimum.
Thanks, Mike Lukacs
