NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[longfellow95]

Personally I lean towards ending lockdowns in most of the west. It is way to widespread to be contained and I do not see a vaccine this year. While the damage cause by the lockdowns is very real.

Couldn't have said it better.

That is .35% of the population, it does not matter how you count it. And we do not know as fact that it would not have been worse without the lockdown (though I accept the possibility that in places like NYC, N Italy and parts of Spain it has fully played out).
For those who have a hard time with math, that would be about 1M deaths in the US. About 250K in the UK.

On the NY deaths nobody knows how many of the excess deaths are directly due to Covid-19. And how many are indirectly caused by the lockdown.
But NY is a real outlier. It experienced the epidemic as a bit of a tsunami, which temporarily overwhelmed the heathcare system.
High population density, huge use of the subway system, and late introduction of social distancing. High proportion of care home deaths.

Extrapolating the exceptional death rate in NY to all of the US or the UK is simply not valid.
The US won't have 1m deaths.
And the UK won't have 250k deaths (even though they have made a right pig's ear of things)

By contrast, I could pick California for example. Currently 2600 deaths and population of 40m.
So that's 0.0065%.

Or Germany 0.009%
Or Canada 0.0124%

So what is more perhaps more interesting is why there is up to a 50 fold disparity in mortality between different locations in N.America and Europe.