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A modest proposal for BP-AMRN

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iwishiknew   Tuesday, 05/05/20 04:11:47 PM
Re: zmanindc post# 271356
Post # of 348180 
A modest proposal for BP-AMRN

CB, #s11 and zmanindc re AMRN valuation w appeal(s) overhang.

A variable CVR (exchange listed) could answer concerns re US value. Value of CVR is based on # of V gms sold x cents/gm. Currently we net $1.10 per gm and have gross margin of circa 77% ($0.85). BP's SG&A for V would be a negligible fraction of A's.
So can we agree on a #cents/gm? I would favor coming up with a number to use while no generic competition and a 2nd smaller number when generics are marketed.

For illustration only: FOR US ONLY- While no generic competition (but no later than end 2029 -don't recall exact date) - if they agree to about 60% of current gross margin (ie 0.50). Once generic market competition present (up to end 2029) - about 30% of current gross margin (ie 0.25).
With these cents/gm - 1 patient = 365 x 4g/d = 1460 g/yr. If no generic = 1460 x 0.50 = $730. If there is a generic = 1460 x 0.25 = $365/yr

If you think V sells w/o competition x 9 yrs and patient numbers are 1-2-3-4-5-5-5-5-5 M... you get to $25.550 B. If you think V sells w competition starting now and V sells to 0.5 M patients for all 9 years ... you get to $1.643 B. (This may highlight BP and A valuation difference of opinion)

I would also like to see CVR protection from transfer of V marketing rights, payments for recovery from generic at risk launch and periodic payouts (keeping tax consequences in mind). Need to prevent problems w V importation from Canada, Europe etc.


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