Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[amarininvestor]

My comments in red

1. A BP buyer needs time to ramp up in preparation for approval by EMA.
Any delay might push back what should be significant revenues on the
back end such as in 2032. (By then that could mean $3 billion for
a 6 month period. (As an example only.) Fully agree. This makes Q3 the latest logical quarter for a BO to be announced -as announcement does not equal to closing...see below-

2. A BP buyer might want to handle the appeal process in a way where
they have maximum control. In other words, a BP might want to make
decisions (and not have JT make them.) Not a valid argument. Closing, including review by FTC would take 5-6 months likely. During that time both companies operate as independent companies. Therefore if a BP wants to be ready to launch in Q1, the offer should be made public by Q3 or so

3 A BP may want to own AMRN to bring their political and lobbying
power to bear before a court decision in made. They may also want
to work with the FDA on any way they could be helpful. See above, timeline does not make this feasible. All BP can help Amarin as independent companies though (amicus fillings)

4. Hopefully, a BP may want to use COVID-19 as an issue to help
their reps detail Vascepa and to increase compliance by patients.
In my opinion, other drug modalities are way more likely to be impactul than Vascepa, so I believe all discussions about Vascepa/Covid even if they may be scientifically sound are not likely to make an impact long term to amarin. Modalities that I believe are more likely to be helpful during this pandemic are: Anti-virals (like Gilead drug), vaccines (like many companies are testing), drugs that directly prevent clotting or other issues associated with the virus like inflammation using strong anti-inflammatory drugs (like IL-6 blockers or interferon blockers). The moderate anti-inflammatory effect of Vascepa are in my mind useful for chronic low-intensity inflammatory disorders (like cardiovascular diseases) but not for acute large inflammatory events (like that expected in a viral infection)

5 Perhaps a BP may have special contacts and skills to increase
the odds for a better outcome in litigation or other possible
solutions. I think this is not a good argument. In my mind, there is nothing like having a team laser focused on one topic (as amarin is now on this appeal). Regardless, see comment above. BP would not be able to complete an acquisition before oral arguments occur and therefore be involved on time to make an impact on this issue

6. Why would a BP wait, and risk that a hostile bidder might beat
them to the punch? Unlikely to occur. When JT said that they are in a process in Europe it means that all interested parties are doing DD and making a bid for Europe. Perhaps those bids include a company acquisition as amarin would like to hear about ALL PROPOSALS. This is a common practice and BP are not likely to make a hostile bid outside of the process as it would be futile. Reason being that any other better bid (even if not public at the moment) will be made public shortly after