In my mind it's this order, but I could definitely be misordering a few things:
1 Capital rule
2 relist
3 court cases, warrants,and seniors (I'm thinking all three of these will be in play at once since they each affect each others outcome.
Minimum capital requirement attained (or possibly more) after settlement of court cases, seniors and warrants.
4 bod shareholder elected. Probably one or two bod members will be fhfa appointed.
5 Either naturally released or via consent decree, depends on courts, etc.
6 1to2 years in, if certain cap requirement is not met through earnings, then more commons or pref's issued. Hopefully GSE's will be able to buy the higher interest bearing prefs and issue lower one's, there by helping capital build more. If capital is not at whatever the rule says 2 years out, only then does bod do a commons offering. By 2 years out fnma commons are in the $25-50 range, new shares knock back stock price the same percentage as percent shares issued. If housing takes off in the next 2 years, which I think it definitely will, then no issue of commons will be necessary.
If we get released or relisted before the election and Trump beats Handsy Bidden, that should be good for a $1-3 jump at the time, depending how far along we are.
7 Jps.....I really think they/most all bought because of Obama administration chanting non-stop about winding down the GSE'S, and bought into that scenario. So now, since direct claims are moot, I think they have but one thing to hold for and that is for the interest payments to turn back on our maybe par somehow. That could be possible 2 years out if housing flies, like I think it will.
