RAF, Triple88, Biowreck, Ilovetech
RAF
Settlement over appeal = Billions assured over billions at risk
It’s really a math equation.
Settlement obviously requires give & take. Give up a little (in this case potentially billions) in order to gain a lot. I.e. >market share= more certainty of lifetime revenue
The appeal roll of the dice must weigh the risk of losing vs the risk of settling
Since WE have no idea on terms one way or the other....it’s futile to debate right now, all I’m advocating is the risk/reward matrix will answer this math question thus why I believe the #s will favor settlement over risk if losing appeal.
Triple88
Transparency is not something that comes easy w JT. It would be naive for any of us to believe they are always truly Gia plan so therefore I ask the question is JT risk averse?
He’s a cpa, under promise over deliver mantra so it’s reasonable to presume he’s intuitively weighing the odds risk settlement vs appeal and I believe it’s safe to draw assumptions he’s not a gambler at heart.
Biowreck
Generics require a developed market. If they don’t settle then they are aware Amrn is de incentivized to develop US market. So if generics draw a hard line then they have a market with no development. “It’s equal to having a great piece of land in a fabulous neighborhood but unable to build a dream home on it”
Settlement finds middle ground for all.
An Amrn win in appeal is loss for generics.
An Amrn loss in appeal is effectively a loss for generics for reasons mentioned above.
A genericwin is to gain cash and/or time. So even if Amrn doesn’t offer major cash upfront, they may agree to a royalty % for nothing. So I do believe settlement can serve all sides.
Ask yourself the question if generics win the appeal and Amrn loses then what have generics gained?
Ilovetech
Until IP has resolution Amrn is stuck. JT himself admitted on last cc will “look to evaluate marketing “= translation “were not spending big $ on dtc until”
That’s just one example but it also has a psychological and philosophical effect on the company as a whole. Case in point look at how he mentioned Covid?
If Amrn had no IP issue then perhaps the Covid discussion here as it relates to V would be about ramping it up, getting the word out.
Instead it’s no secret why the company is quiet here. IP issue weighs on. Everything Amrn does right now.
Amrn needs resolution to IP fast. Time is running out. Nobody can dispute V is in a race vs time and until IP is resolved time is winning.
