A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[ls7550]

Hi Jaiml

Yes still using the log stochastic approach. Looking like that got to deploy relatively little (just 20%) of cash. Had expected a pandemic and shutdown/stay at home economy to dive deeper. Seems to have barely even dipped to 'fair' price. Whilst we could see dives back down again, rather hope that's not the case.

My guess is that we wont see any vaccine any time soon and instead some kind of predictive test (and treatment) will be identified that can spot the smaller proportion of those more inclined to go into a cytokine storm - where those contracting the virus have a week of flu like symptoms, start to feel better after the 7th day, but then take a sudden and rapid turn for the worse - that seems to occur in around 10% of cases - which for a high percentage of those can turn out fatal. If that can be predicted/prevented then the death toll could be much lower and the issue then becomes more like a regular flu-like event. Could be something as simple as anakinra injections (that are more commonly used used in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis). https://www.newswise.com/articles/here-s-a-playbook-for-stopping-deadly-cytokine-storm-syndrome - and as such could see a rapid turn around (less need to lock down, let it run through the population and where relatively few die, and where most are back to work after a week or two of having endured a flu like illness).

Regards. Clive.