Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Whalatane]

ham. thx for that note

Re Teva . Agree the Co has had huge problems but 4th Q 2019 looks a lot better
Teva

Free cash flow (Cash flow generated from operating activities, net of cash used for capital investments and beneficial interest collected in exchange for securitized trade receivables) was $974 million in the fourth quarter of 2019, compared to $522 million in the fourth quarter of 2018.
The increase in 2019 resulted mainly from the higher cash flow generated from operating activities and sell of real-estate assets.

Hikma ..the nearest generic competitor is around $2B in gross revenue ..have not looked at their net profit or free cash flow ....but as long as the opioid issue is settled for Teva , Teva looks as tho they are reasonable shape going forward.

II am not suggesting Teva take massive loses on generic V to drive out Hikma but can see something like the following
Brand Vascepa cost to health providers is around $140 a month I believe
Generic Vascepa may be around $120 a month from Hikma and only needs to be $119 a month from Teva for pharmacists to provide Teva V as the approved option ( my crude understanding )

The other issues are
1) supply chain of API and sales, distribution . Teva already has this established via their sale of G Lovaza
2) Teva's existing agreement with AMRN to pay AMRN a royalty if they enter the market . To my knowledge Hikma will not be paying AMRN any royalty if they enter therefore its in AMRN's interest ...if they lose the appeal ...that Teva enters .
3)AMRN has supply agreements / commitments already in place for API ( raw EPA ) and thus could supply Teva if necessary ...and supply of API will be an issue to really grow this market beyond $1B in yearly sales.

If Amarin loses the appeal ...then IMHO this is to big a market for Teva to allow a small generic competitor to dominate especially since Teva already has existing generic " fish oil " sales , supply , distribution structures in place

Kiwi