NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Doktornolittle]

Discussion by a pro on modeling CVirus spread and deaths. (See link at end of post.) He is talking about India, but there is some reference to the US and some reference to modeling in general. One could probably find more in depth discussion of his modeling if you search with his name included. As for the currently muted fan of my modeling: He is certainly right that I should not have tried to model the data given the weight of the matter. But I want to point out a few things: 1) Someone asked me to report the daily numbers, and I did, (adding commentary / analysis that was questionable). 2) As I posted further, I was continuing from my previous posts, in my mind, so any qualifications, such as, "If this data point is not noise", were assumed in later posts. 3) I had said in the first post that I had done a complex analysis and then threw it out, realizing I had used the wrong data set to begin with. He then flammed my having used the complex analysis which made no sense since I had said I threw it out and I did not say what data set I had used so his correction of what High School math I should have employed made no sense. You have to know what data set to know what math to use. That was my first post and the only one referencing the more complex, errant calculations, so he definitely read that post, but not very carefully. To get that radical without really reading a post is a little nuts. He was right that I should not have posted my subsequent simplistic analysis, but in every detail he was wrong and flat out irrational. But let me piss him off further here. I am struggling with this, and would like feedback... maybe from a more rational person though. I believe the projected range of deaths in the US if we had not done anything has been stated as 2.2 Million. That was top of the range. We already spent $2.2T, primarily in stimulus to offset the work restrictions. That is $1M per person saved if you consider the number that will die with restrictions in place to be much fewer than 2.2 Million. I don't think we normally spend that kind of money on saving people. But maybe one of my numbers is off here. But if those numbers are right, consider this further: South Korea accomplished their suppression of spread without stopping people from going to work. There are other things that can be done besides stopping work, so the 2.2M deaths in the US drops if we do those things but still allow people to go to work. So we are spending more than $1M to save each person... and still risking a recession or possibly a depression in this country (USA) as a result of the work shut-down. The stimulus does not really fix that. Further, that $2.2T stimulus could be used in the near future as an excuse to gut Social Security or some other important federal budget sector. I'm not saying that I am certain that we did the wrong thing, I am just wondering, and I think you have to look at this viewpoint even if in the end you decide we did the right thing. How many deaths from suicide alone were the result of the "Great Depression" in the US? How many from the very dangerous jobs created to pull us out? How many from exposure during homelessness? How many from bad nutrition and disease spread due to less medical care? Does "free government provided medical care" fix that? Not sure that more spending will fix the astronomical spending we have done so far. And that $2.2T is really just for one month or so of bandaid. A critical month that includes critical April, but it is just a month or so. South Korea started earlier than us, so maybe our more extreme moves were needed as a result. But at least allow this: May 5 or so, when Trump (who I am no fan of) says we need to go back to work, recall that the South Koreans did not stop work. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/least-75-000-coronavirus-infections-041207265.html