Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[hvypilot]

bio--we all should have done more dd re: obviousness and NOT rely on the analysts predicting confidence of a win

I disagree. Plenty of dd suggested a very high probability of a win. That calculation should have been right, and was right, in my opinion.

But a very high probability is not a certain guarantee.

We don't know if a reasonable settlement was on the table. We don't know for sure if Judge Du was ignorant, had an agenda, was corrupt, or had an honest disagreement (yeah, right).

What everyone should have done was to hedge against the factors out of our control and out of our ability to know.

Hindsight is so clear. Anyone who trades or invests in individual stocks and holds through earnings release knows how unpredictably the market can behave and how unforeseen events can occur.

But with a one-drug company, with a key decision in the hands of one person, we were vulnerable no matter how clear the facts.

We all have to learn from this lesson, and I am among those who didn't hedge appropriately.