NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[longfellow95]

Hi abc.
Hope I didn't sound like I was shooting the messenger previously!
Yes, I see the Beeb are repeating this.
If they had said 'up to a possible maximum of 406', it would have been more reasonable, I guess.
The time of quickest transmission in Europe would have been at the end of Jan, when most countries began reporting their first cases, and when little or no real personal precautions were being taken. And we are now 2 months in. 406 x 406 is 164,836. And a further month would take it to nearly 67m. About the entire population of the UK.
So I maintain that it's an inflated figure.
But having said that, the social distancing / self isolation requirements are definitely required.
So perhaps the figures should be taken as 'worst case scenario' to highlight what we are up against. Which is your 'sharp shock' point.

And they do highlight the difference that restrictions can potentially make, even if the social distancing figures really are a pretty rough estimate, given that different countries have introduced different levels of restriction.

On lockdown in the UK, people still go to food shops, they still go out for exercise. Essential workers still come and go each day, so transmission will still occur, and so will incubation periods.

On recreation; it's a difficult one. In densely populated areas, where do people go? They have to use the pavement, and small parks bring a lot of people together. I still maintain that driving in your car to a spacious area of recreation, where you can easily keep your distance, is not in itself irresponsible, but it's not really in line with current guidance, and not everybody has that option anyway.

One difference in the Far East is that it is widely accepted that you should always wear a face mask when out, and it's very much the norm.
In Europe, we were told that a face mask basically wasn't a good idea, wasn't necessary, and didn't offer much protection.
Not really true at all.
It may have been the case that the authorities wanted at all costs to reserve available masks for essential workers; medics and those providing personal care to seniors.
And that is perfectly understandable and acceptable.
But the value of face masks is still being downplayed outside of Asia. Obviously scarves and home-made affairs don't offer the same level of two-way protection, but if they protect against airborn droplets entering the mouth and noise, then they basically work.
I think in the UK if they had a spare 50m facemasks in a warehouse somewhere that they could make available, the UK govt would recommend their widespread use. But they haven't.
And frontline medics must have guaranteed availability of masks.

I really do recommend this video, which is an interview with a S Korean Professor of Infectious diseases, who has to be one of the most eminent experts in the field right now. He has 30 yrs experience in the field leading his countries response to a series of viral epidemics.
And as much as any country can, S Korea has got it taped.
He goes into a lot of detail about how the virus is transmitted, testing protocols, mortality rates, vulnerability by age, and how S Korea has responded, and his view about possible pandemic outcomes.

Regards.