NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[longfellow95]

Sorry ABC, but, imo, this amounts to misinformation.

No sources quoted.

Seems to completely disregard incubation period.
There is no consensus on whether an individual is contagious during the incubation period. There is no full consensus on the incubation period itself.

The '1 person infects 2.5' is an estimate based on very imperfect data.
And the social distancing model of 1.25 is just a complete shot in the dark.

How is the 'social distancing' defined?
Answer; it isn't.

I simply do not believe that with sensible hygiene behaviour, but without mass social distancing, that 1 infected individual will lead to 406 infected individuals a month later.
In fact, I think it can be demonstrated to be mathematically almost impossible.
That is simply misinformation, imo.

And my hackles rise when I see emotive words used such as 'slashed' used, when nobody can accurately quantify how all the varying degrees of social distancing actually limit viral transmission.
And I'm always suspicious of little stickmen comparative diagrams, which seem to me to be aimed at promulgating things that are not factually accurate to a gullible audience.
In fact it reminds me of a certain stick diagram on the Optune site (which was a load of baloney).

I would love to know who put this out.