Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:07:45 PM
Let's see...first of all the huge volatile moves on an intraday basis are making most of my charts seem totally inadequate. Let take one off of my other chart site Trend Spider since it's easier to visualize. It really is spaghetti on stock charts.
First, the daily charts being somewhat inadequate I have been dropping down to shorter time frames. Here is a 2 hour chart. The main features of the Ichimoku Cloud are:
The Cloud Top
The Cloud Bottom
The 9-period Conversion Line (Blue)
The 26-period Base Line (Red)
In principle I look for price crossovers of the conversion line, base line and through the cloud as key break through areas. In a strong move the conversion line will cross over the base line and if really strong will break through the cloud.
Every thing has been so fast and choppy that moves aren't being sustained. You almost have to day trade to make money or to be safe.
In the chart below I have circled the areas of recent crossovers in my mind. In a longer term uptrend these things go very smooth and orderly. Lately...sheesh. Naturally, these key lines and crossovers become key areas of support and resistance.
In this case, for a sustained trend change I would look for a stacking of events - price crosses the blue conversion line, then price and in close proximity the conversion line cross over the base line, then through the bottom of the cloud then above the cloud. This sequence can be seen more frequently on shorter time frames rather than this historical crash on the daily.
There is one thing that is starting to stand out for me on so many of my charts and I see it again on your charts. The candle on Mon Mar 16th. It's notable as a potential bottom point. It has these two long wicks and a short body. One of the potential outcomes if the price doesn't break that low is that that was the day that buyers stepped in and said that's it this is too low to pass up. The price action traders love candles with long wicks because they indicate a large mover from one side of trade to the other.
Anyhow, these are my thoughts on your question. I do like what I see on the NEED chart. I like that cluster of candles this week and everything holding above the candle on the 16th.
First, the daily charts being somewhat inadequate I have been dropping down to shorter time frames. Here is a 2 hour chart. The main features of the Ichimoku Cloud are:
The Cloud Top
The Cloud Bottom
The 9-period Conversion Line (Blue)
The 26-period Base Line (Red)
In principle I look for price crossovers of the conversion line, base line and through the cloud as key break through areas. In a strong move the conversion line will cross over the base line and if really strong will break through the cloud.
Every thing has been so fast and choppy that moves aren't being sustained. You almost have to day trade to make money or to be safe.
In the chart below I have circled the areas of recent crossovers in my mind. In a longer term uptrend these things go very smooth and orderly. Lately...sheesh. Naturally, these key lines and crossovers become key areas of support and resistance.
In this case, for a sustained trend change I would look for a stacking of events - price crosses the blue conversion line, then price and in close proximity the conversion line cross over the base line, then through the bottom of the cloud then above the cloud. This sequence can be seen more frequently on shorter time frames rather than this historical crash on the daily.
There is one thing that is starting to stand out for me on so many of my charts and I see it again on your charts. The candle on Mon Mar 16th. It's notable as a potential bottom point. It has these two long wicks and a short body. One of the potential outcomes if the price doesn't break that low is that that was the day that buyers stepped in and said that's it this is too low to pass up. The price action traders love candles with long wicks because they indicate a large mover from one side of trade to the other.
Anyhow, these are my thoughts on your question. I do like what I see on the NEED chart. I like that cluster of candles this week and everything holding above the candle on the 16th.
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