Cel Sci Corporation (CVM)

[staticmirror79]

Lightrock,

I appreciate our civil discourse where we can flesh out opposing viewpoints. I do think we agree to an extent on things, but here are my thoughts.

#1
The "alarming" thing is 7,000 samples in Italy with very high mortality
And Spain following in the same footsteps. 7,000 results is not an insignificant sampling.

Italy has the second oldest population on earth. Their median age is 47.3 years as opposed to Amercias 38.2. That's almost a decade older on average. A large percentage of these mortality rates are from people who are not only 70+ but the large majority of these older patients had underlying health conditions.

74.1%, about 3/4 of all deaths in Italy have come from very old patients who had 2 or more prior illnesses.

Sources: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

https://www.wired.com/story/why-the-coronavirus-hit-italy-so-hard/

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/opinions/south-korea-italy-coronavirus-survivability-sepkowitz/index.html

Now look at all the deaths that are happening in the U.S. Older patients with underlying health conditions.

17 new deaths in the United States
Deaths include:

1 death in California, the first in San Benito County: a man in his 60s [source]
1 death in Louisiana: a patient in his 60s with underlying health conditions [source]
1 death in Georgia [source]
1st death in Maryland: a man in his 60s with an underlying medical condition [source]
1 death in Washington State: a woman in her 80s with underlying health conditions [source]

To finish up the first point. No that is not an insignificant sampling. And that death rate would be far above the 1% I feel that the world will eventually end up averaging. So to your credit that still means a large percentage of struggling aging populations will die and are in danger. I don't take that lightly. But I also don't want to panic and extrapolate this into the idea that the overall general population of the younger world is at an increased risk of death when studies have shown that they are clearly not. I think it's expedient to take things seriously while at the same time not contributing to the panic.

#2
The distribution in the USA is going to be substantially different than anywhere else we have seen so far. A one month lock-down here will be the wrong timing for the next state over, and so on, and so on...

So my point is no we do not need to be cautious, we need to be extremely aggressive combating this virus. Track down every last intersection of virus carrier, mobilize the FBI, boy scouts, everybody.

I do agree with this to an extent. I do think that this is the United States and many other countries long term plan until we find a vaccine or reliable treatment. Once we can get this under control we will at some point need to resume society so our economy doesn't completely crumble and send us all back to the stone ages. At whatever point they get this under control I presume we would adopt a strategy like South Korea, to monitor, test, and quarantine any areas of potential outbreaks quickly and effectively while the rest of society continues to function as normal, albeit with a little more social distance for the time being.

I definitely agree that each state should and will have it's own timetable for things. Florida will be VERY interesting to watch, that could be a trouble state since it has a lot of retired seniors living down there en mass.

As of now there are 140,203 active cases.
133,024 (95%) of those are mild
7,179 (5%) of those are serious/critical

Increased testing will show us if that 5% rises or lowers with time. I think it's important to take these numbers seriously but also all with a grain of salt. I've read a lot of negative headlines and comments about how the U.S. will fare. It's easy to get caught up in the overwhelming negative sentiments. I for one am remaining optimistic that we will do better with this than others like Italy. We are a productive, smart, and hard working country and I think will come up with a lot of smart solutions to battle this. I'm sure you have heard of GMs CEO and Elon Musk both offering to make respirators.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/edgarsten/2020/03/18/gms-barra-offers-to-build-ventilators-in-idled-plants/#7184b37d4754

https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/19/21186634/bill-de-blasio-elon-musk-ventilator-shortage-coronavirus-pandemic-covid-19

In Utah local hospitals and businesses are coming up with better planning and solutions to prepare.

If we can't remain positive and find the good this will break us as a society. We WILL pull through, and it's not an if, it's a WHEN.


p.s. Thank you. The earthquake was more of a scare than anything. A large quake would have been disastrous amid this pandemic. Most of us thought the world was ending yesterday. We are all now prepared to shoot the fourth horseman when he rides over the hill ;)

P.p.s. Seriously wanting some positive update on LEAPS. Not only would that be nice for share price but more importantly we need some more tools to fight this ASAP. As always, looking forward to your critique. Be well.