I do. Here is why:
Look at a 15 year chart on CNQ or SU. On either chart there are clear share price drops in 2008 and again in 2014. Both drops were due to legitimate reasons regarding oil supply and demand at the time. The narrative at that point in time was similar to the current state of the market. Essentially, supply and demand are out of balance for reason x, y or z.
I want to be clear, there are most certainly legitimate fundamental reasons why oil is trading at $20 a barrel. I just as strongly believe that at some point in the next 24 months there will be just as legitimate reasons for oil to trade higher. The narrative will change for reason xx, yy, or zz. It doesn't matter to correctly predict the next positive oil black swan only to recognize that one will happen. The middle east is still a powder keg, Russia is hemorrhaging money (but has resolve and solidarity), instability in south america. Something will shift the market from it's dismal current state.
In the past week, the Kremlin has twice commented (that I have seen) that it would like to see higher oil prices. Will Russia and Saudi make peace? Maybe, not for me to say. I sleep well at night knowing I bought best in breed, and that the best in breed is trading at a significant historical discount. It is painful to read oil may go negative and WCS is trading at $9 a barrel. But if it wasn't painful oil wouldn't be trading at $20 a barrel. The narrative is dismal currently. At some point in the future the narrative will change. It's really that simple in a market with as many volatile inputs as oil.
P.S.: I have the benefit of not having to look at my account often. My current strategy is to add when I have available funds and forget my password in between. That does not imply I have my head in the sand, but the daily swings I feel removed from.
P.S.S. I think we are in peak gloom for the overall market. I am turning slightly optimistic that a treatment is around the corner. If that is true the economy will turn back on and the amount of damage done could be less than predicted by some. At least I hope this is true. I feel terrible for small business and restaurant owners. This situation is completely unfair to them.
