Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[couldbebetter]

Mr. Murphy, Raf reported what he was told, and not what he thinks it means.
My posts are simply speculation based on that information. We do know
that JT said he will not partner for the US. That might mean that he
is willing to GIA in the US or that BP will have to acquire AMRN if
it wants to sell Vascepa in the US. My hope (and guess) is that it
is the later and not the former. Assuming that BP in interested in
acquiring AMRN, any delay in doing so after the takeover window is fully
open will be very costly in the later years of the product life cycle.

For example, let's say AMRN agrees to a BP takeout in April. It may
take 6 months to close...let's say it closes in August. That gives
BP 8 years before Teva can sell a generic Vascepa. If it takes BP
2 years to fully ramp up sales, they will have only 6 years of optimal
sales. Why would they wait any longer than prudent? BP has most
likely studied Vascepa to death. Having that 6 years of optimal sales
is better than 5 years, so it may be a do or die decision.

Europe may have a product life cycle of 10-13 years, with 8-11 years
of optimal revenues. JT says he would do what is best for shareholders.