Canopy Growth Corp (WEED)

[Another Casualty]

Sure John. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but if we consider other countries and their path to successfully handling this virus I think there is a very high likelihood that the US will implement significant measures aimed at reducing the spread of the virus with in the next 2-3 weeks. I also predict that 1 month from now you will see the case numbers exploding as the virus is acting in an exponential fashion.

In 1 month I believe there is a very high likelihood hospital systems will be completely overwhelmed.

I think the best case scenario is leadership will realise this within the next 2 weeks and act swiftly to slow the progression. I am certain containment measures are about to ramp up.

I suspect at minimum several major cities if not states on the west cost will be completely quarantined. I also suspect NY and TX will be quarantined.

Depending on just how bad this really gets you may even see the entire country locked down. Hard to believe because this is the US, but as a former microbiologist, now engineer I can tell you that this bug going around is a nasty one. Once it overwhelms the system, its fatality rate jumps as well. This is the reason Italy implemented a full lock down yesterday. Top officials were made aware that the systems were overloaded.

I've described here in a timeline. When these events occur the markets will take hard hits. I now believe partial market recovery I highly depended on how aggressive the US is at slowing the virus. If highly aggressive I'd say bottom could be as early as this summer. Investors will need to be careful however and fully prepared to exit positions this coming fall at which point I believe the virus will come back for round 2 which if it behaves in the manner of h1n1 from 2008 it will come back with a vengeance and with twice the force again exponential. This alone will catch us once again and drive the markets down once again.

Full recovery market wise will arrive as early as 2022.

Next possible major trading opportunity is probably between late may and early july. This period will tighten as history unfolds.

This applies to CGC as well.

Travel wise I'd say anything April to May could be a huge gamble.