Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Nearest Futures - Reaching High »» Monthly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 7, 2020

OUR ANALYTICAL OUTLOOK AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Mar. 6, 2020: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed above our indicating ranges on the Daily level. It closed today at 167240 and is trading up about 9.80% for the year from last year's closing of 152310. Factually, this market has been rising for this market has been rising for 3 months going into March reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. while it is still trading above last month's close of 156670.


ECM COMMENTARY

The last ECM target date was Sun. Mar. 13, 2022, which was-737 days ago. Last week this market made a high at 169280 going into this target on the ECM suggesting we should pay attention to this particular market for a possible alignment and shift in trend.

FOCUSING ON TREND

Presently, the market remains unchanged within support still above our system indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 8 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 59% which has been a respectable advance to date. We have elected one yearly buy signal during this bounce currently. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established Sat. Jan. 1, 2011 for the past 8 years and a closing below 68090 would signal that a continued decline is underway. Likewise, only a breakout to new highs with a closing above 192370 would suggest a renewed rally is unfolding.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 163186 which we have already exceeded and are currently trading above this level warning some strength has resurfaced in this market. This level can now offer technical support during any attempt to fall back in this market. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 137370 which is still holding at this time.

Our timing models warn that a turning point is due come May in NY Gold Nearest Futures so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during February. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, to date, this market has already exceeded that previous high established at 169170. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bullish overall. Last month produced a high at 169170 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 169170 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 182160 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.

Critical support still underlies this market at 144610 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 18 months. The previous low of 116270 made during August 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 151970 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during February on the Monthly level at 169170 has now been exceeded in the recent rally. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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