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NY Gold Nearest Futures - Temp High New Pattern Forming »» Monthly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 29, 2020

THE IMMEDIATE ANALYTICAL STANCE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Feb. 28, 2020: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 156670 and is trading up about 2.86% for the year from last year's closing of 152310. At the moment, this market has been rising for this market has been rising for 2 months going into February reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 169170 yet it is trading below last month's close of 158790 implying near-term weakness. FOCUSING ON TREND


Up to this moment in time, the market remains bearish on the short-term levels of our indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are neutral.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 8 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 49% which has been an appreciable up move to date. We have elected one yearly buy signal during this bounce currently. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established Sat. Jan. 1, 2011 for the past 8 years and a closing below 68090 would signal that a continued decline is underway. Likewise, only a breakout to new highs with a closing above 192370 would suggest a renewed rally is unfolding.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 163186 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 137370 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during January. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, to date, this market has exceeded the previous high established at 161330, but it is now trading back below the previous close, which suggests it may have simply faded that high and that could remain as a cycle high on a closing basis. Last month produced a high at 161330 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 161330 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now.

Critical support still underlies this market at 146490 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 17 months. The previous low of 116270 made during August 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 145980 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during January on the Monthly level at 161330 has now been exceeded in the recent rally. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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