Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[IgnoranceIsBliss]

I am The Cyclops

He can see the manner and timing of his own death

(It makes him wise yet somber.)

And I can also see the end game for AMRN.

They are getting bought.

They are low profiling the whole "True to Your Heart" thing for that reason, and they are also bullshitting why the DTC approval will take so long. Both things are to permit the buyer to brand Vascepa with their stamp on it.

They can't announce a deal until the patent overhang is cleared, but they already know who the buyer is. The deal will be announced shortly after that (probably in April).

By then, between removal of the patent overhang, and deal rumors abounding, the stock will be trading around $30 per share.

The actual deal will go down right around the $50 level ($45 to $55 range). There will be CVRs for total sales above a certain level, approval of a broad label in Europe, and additional major indications. Under a $10+bn peak sales by 2025 scenario, the total pre-tax value delivered to a shareholder will be high double digits -- not quite $100.

Everyone here will be pretty happy except for Bio. Nothing would make him happy. Being happy would actually make him unhappy.