$6-$10 soon. No re-consolidation.
I understand your sentiment towards re-consolidation, but I don't think it'll happen. Before, when it happened, it was usually because every piece of good news was met with the realization of 'another year, another year,' which promoted reconsoldiation on gains.
That's why we surged to $14, then crashed, because everyone realized we were YEARS away.
But things have changed this time. We aren't years away from anything. We are 6 months or less.
Over 5 million (almost 10-14million) (+$50-75million dollars) of shares have been traded in the past two weeks. That's not normal, and it's not retail. I bought 10k, and I doubt all of us retailer's combined would rival 250k.
So someone is accumulating, Parkwest, Blackrock, and others. We were under the $5 threshold for since 2017, and a lot of funds may have 'wanted' us, but until we re-crossed back into $5 territory, we were off limits.
We surged 2m shares today and topped at $1, retraced 25% from highs, and settled at 80cents (16%) with AH of $5.91. For that reason, I see $5 as the new floor.
And conspirationally, we just received Fast Track for Retts, which historically holds a 90% approval rate. Retts market has us at a range of $30-$50/share if we are approved. Also, what is more likely, that Dr. Missling has sat around waiting for data to come in, or he's been shaking hands and kissing babies with the intent to make a 'pre-deal' ie, --> insert good natured German accent "if zee Retts data is good, and we get zee Fast Track, what numbers are you looking at bringing to zee table?"
I anticipate there are a lot of 'pre-deals' - and I anticipate that despite insider knowledge, it has leaked to a few key people (because no secret is unknown forever in a niche organization. someone always knows something) - and WallStreet pays NYC clerks and secretaries $10k-$50k 'under the table' for insider knowledge.
So most likely, someone has that knowledge, that there is a pre-deal (Dr. M has shown himself to be a planner, not a sitter-arounder) and when certain milestones are met, the 'pre-deal' becomes a 'real-deal.'
Pfizer, Merck, or Biogen have more than a few $Billion laying around to sweeten any deal, and they're not going to willingly pass up an opportunity without a fight. So they will probably over-pay today to benefit tomorrow. If it's worth $50 in a year, they'll pay $100. They have access to the data as well (nefariously or just through good relationships), and are getting data readouts (probably) very close to the source - it's like war, they have their spies too. There is a lack of drugs in a lot of pipelines right now, so to know (openly or through other means) that a drug is about to make it, and that Anavex doesn't have an established partner, then a lot of 'pre-deals' are probably starting to have fresh ink put to fresh paper.
So I would anticipate that this will break $6 tomorrow. If it holds $6 through the week into next week, we will probably tap $10 by the end of the month. Then we squat and hold for the next drip-drop or bucket's worth of information in the form of read-outs or partnership.
$20 by summer and $50 upon approval.
Because what is happening is no longer retail driven.
It's deep money that has waited a few years to get back in.
Or maybe this falls back to $3 or $4, but then a lot of funds HAVE TO sell their shares when it drops below $5. And I don't think they're going to let them go knowing that a pre-deal is around the corner.
But... to be a devils advocate, the average fund in 2019 only held their shares for 5 days, so maybe we see massive selling this week for that reason alone. I'll be very poopy-pants if that happens, but I don't expect it to.
GLTA.
