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Re: Investor2014 post# 236510

Saturday, 02/15/2020 9:37:05 AM

Saturday, February 15, 2020 9:37:05 AM

Post# of 462880
That is highly likely that if the MMs can get the stock to hold below $5 for $5 strike for 21 Feb 2020 Call options. The reason this is because MMs are the corresponding party ie the other side of the trade on a large % of the trades I would calculate >80% on relatively illiquid options like AVXL based on 20 plus years of experience trading options. Small caps are like that. Therefore the gross imbalance between Calls and Puts and the high price of Calls on this recent rise really inflated prices well above FMV leads me to forecast that MMs are very much net short the Feb 5 calls. So they will be trying to get the close under $5 on Feb 21. If they Can. As the saying goes Options are designed to inflict maximum pain on traders at expiration date. Not pain for the MMs. It appeared Noobs were opening positions this week at inflated prices with close to zero time value left. I do not recommend that anyone trade in options but they are important to watch for the implications on the Stock. For instance all other things being equal next week will be a good week to add and the week following expiration would be a better week to sell some. Option markets in AVXL can not be priced by what they "seem" to be trading at price because I suspect many trades are fake to paint the tape or made by very foolish traders or desperate retail shorts "buying Insurance" by hedging short shares with long Call Options.
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Total Trades:
  • 1D
  • 1M
  • 3M
  • 6M
  • 1Y
  • 5Y
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