Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Condor64]

I'm hoping this is meant to be ironic.

I want Amarin to win this lawsuit as much as anybody and I think they are going to win. But sometimes the happy talk on this board goes over the top. I'd like to know how many of the lawyers on this board have ever told a client that they have a "95+% chance" or a "virtual certainty" of winning a trial. In 30 years, I never have. There is too much unpredictability in the system.

Making it worse, as near as I can tell this is Judge Du's first patent case going to trial. Patent cases are complicated and reasonable minds often disagree on, for example, what is and what is not obvious. If we were in Delaware or New Jersey, we would have a judge who has tried dozens of ANDA cases and we would have a much better ability to predict an outcome.

It seems that the market knows this, which is why we are floundering in the 17-18 pps range despite great news on the broadened label.

On the positive side, my opinion is that Judge Du's grant of summary judgment of no contributory infringement last fall is very questionable and that if Amarin loses, they would already have a decent appeal based on that alone. But there would also be 18-24 months of pain and suffering for shareholders while we wait for the appeals court to fix it.