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NY Gold Nearest Futures - Still Moving Higher »» Monthly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 1, 2020

ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Jan. 31, 2020: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed above our indicating ranges on the Daily level. It closed today at 158790 and is trading up about 4.25% for the year from last year's closing of 152310. Presently, this market has been rising for this market has been rising for 2 months going into February reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend.


ECM COMMENTARY

The last ECM target date was Sat. Jan. 18, 2020, which was about two weeks ago. This at least warns we need to pay attention to at least this sector coming into a possible alignment and shift in trend with theis trurning point in the ECM.

RECENT ACTION

Factually, the market remains unchanged within support still above our system indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 8 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 51% which has been an appreciable up move to date. We have elected one yearly buy signal during this bounce currently. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established Sat. Jan. 1, 2011 for the past 8 years and a closing below 68090 would signal that a continued decline is underway. Likewise, only a breakout to new highs with a closing above 192370 would suggest a renewed rally is unfolding.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 163186 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 137370 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

A possible change in trend appears due come February in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during January. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a high at 161330 but closed on the positive side during January. We need to exceed that level during January to suggest a continued advance is likely. Support technically lies now at 151970 and a breach of that level will warn of a retest of key support down at 146500 becomes possible.

Critical support still underlies this market at 146490 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 17 months. The previous low of 116270 made during August 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 145980 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during January on the Monthly level at 161330 has now been exceeded in the recent rally. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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