Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Biostockclub]

This has me puzzled:
(Not really - just putting it out there. Many surely agree, but here’s what a true dog and pony show looks like and it’s a price pump which works, founded on a drug which doesn’t, sadly)

From the JPM20 conf yesterday:

JPM20: Biogen CEO Michel Vounatsos offers a ‘smile of confidence’ as he presents aducanamab

Michel Vounatsos (GETTY)


Click on the image to see the full-sized version
SAN FRANCISCO – Biogen isn’t softening its rhetoric.

Two months after research chief Al Sandrock all-but dared the FDA not to approve its Alzheimer’s drug, CEO Michel Vounatsos told an overflowing ballroom at JP Morgan that the success of a drug that operates like aducanumab is a “dream.”

“Some of you were at CTAD and saw the data,” Vountsos said, referring to the controversial subgroup analysis they presented their aducanumab trial at the Clinical Trials for Alzheimer’s Disease conference.  “Who in the room doesn’t know someone who has been demented?”

That analysis, coming months after the company first announced the drug had failed, relied on believing how late changes – called ‘protocol amendments’ – to one of two identical trials made one succeed and the other fail.

“Without all the protocol amendments, I would not be here, today, standing with a smile of confidence on the way forward,” Vounatsos said, not quite smiling.

Still, Biogen has heard the criticism from investors, most notably Baird’s Brian Skorney, that their big ambitions have left them with few assets in their pipeline likely to raise revenue soon. Vounatsos walked through the other parts of their pipeline, including a lupus drug, an ALS drug, a new MS drug and, of course, another new Alzheimer’s drug with a different approach: Tau. — Jason Mast



Comment: The last line has me mystified:

RE PIPELINE:
“and, of course, another new Alzheimer’s drug with a different approach: Tau.”

So, the CEO is smiling confidently about their likely upcoming approval of aducanumab, while also touting a new drug (which they just purchased) which utilizes an entirely different approach.

Is that a next level hedge or what?! If you believe in your MoA (Anavex does), you begin testing it on several (many) different upstream CNS indications and validate the mechanism’s effect by standing behind it and its ability to take on the majority of CNS dysfunction. That’s what we are doing and it seems rational even though we take some flak or guff, flak and guff, for putting all of our eggs in one basket. Conversely, if it doesn’t show any signal strength in different indications, end the research and save money - don’t stand behind a loser.

Michel Vounatsos is all over the map and highly confident he has a winner. Or two? Wha...?

You can fool some of the people...can’t fool yourself.

So, our CEO is not strutting around the JPM Conf like a peacock smiling confidently...does that mean he has nothing to smile about? Or, just that he’s smiling on the inside?

Personally, I find Biogen’s licensing of a completely different method disconcerting and undermining of the drug it is currently touting. It may be the most honest thing about their pipeline - their words say we are highly confident (he’s talking the talk), but they keep licensing new different approaches. They are still shopping for a valid mechanism, imo, smile or no smile. Not walking the walk. I think they can say anything they want but keep your eyes on the ball - sleight of hand and follow the pitch, actions speak louder than words. Batters watch the pitcher and follow the ball - everything else is just chatter/sizzle/distraction/razzle dazzle. Swing and a miss - chance increases.
(Love the press, btw. Even that is positive...lot of gullible investors in the market) - think he’s smiling cause he’s knows he’s fleecing them?:)))

If you switch horses frequently while maintaining that your horse is a champion...you have a credibility/reality/horse sense problem. Biogen may not be suffering from an empty stable, but they sure dismount a lot. Hmmmm.

If anyone really thinks this is strengthening their pipeline to own the next big drug (after the mab is approved) with a different approach or that two different mechanisms will be better than one to cover a broader market, I say you are ripe for this obvious hedge and fleece. Go back to biology 101. Investors will love that they have a broad range of compounds which will swell the brain enormously and not improve cognition, cause, hey, it’s just a $30B fleece/head fake.

Bertolt Brecht said,
“Where’s the crime in robbing a bank compared with founding one?”

If aducanumab were showing promise, I contend Biogen would be trying to develop more compounds similar to it using the same MoA - sort of like A2-73, A1-31... all sigma 1 agonists.

Anavex is riding the same horse and has it entered in 3 legs of the triple crown.

Where’s the confidence, now, see?

We got this! (By 31 lengths minimum)

Biostock

Cite for above Biogen report:

https://endpts.com/jpm20-vertex-lays-out-post-cf-ambitions-as-gilead-demurs-on-acquisition/

GLTA