KC
Lets look at it from a different perspective:
SUPPOSE that back in Jun/Jul after Sipes hears the depositions/briefs/filings (especially after Amarin's own expert Dr Budoff states that he prescribes V for less than 12 weeks 5% of the time and open's the door to non-infringement) that Sipes pulls JT aside and says "there is a CHANCE we could lose this trial.'
Losing the generic trial means that by 2021-22 generic V steals 95% of V revenue in US and 10's of BILLIONS of future revenue disappears. JT knows the stock would drop to single digits by April 2020 (when the trial results are due) and he wouldn't be able to dilute again for years. As a result JT does his larger than expected dilution to raise funds to ensure operations until 2022-3 when European revenue would start to pick up.
Wall Street picks up on the rumor of a potential loss to the generics and start shorting, thus explaining the sudden rise to 50 plus million short by early September. This would also explain why shorts attacked after the label announcement in Dec - they knew it could be meaningless or at least that the upcoming uncertainty about the lawsuits was likely to increase and drive the price down.
The probability is still high that the generics lose but the possibility of a win is what MAY HAVE drove the larger holders (maybe even BB) to short against their own shares as a hedge.
I have long believed that the POTENTIAL weakness in the patents has been the main problem since the dilution.
Things that encourage me to stay in and long:
1) Judge Du stating that the chronic disease implies chronic treatment
2) The Sanofi case law that has been discussed on this board sounds encouraging (but not convincing). THANKS HDG and all the legal guys that have stepped up to the plate, I really appreciate your input!!!
3) the weak, small and marginally relevant trials to support obviousness
Things that make me worry:
1) stock price has been steadily dropping since receiving a very positive label
2) for a company the COULD be BO any day the short interest is inexplicable too high and has remained relatively unchanged since Sept.
3) if no settlement Monday then I have a big worry. Mr conservative knowns there is always risks when you enter a court room and he would certainly want to limit all risk. No settlement tells me DR Reddy thinks they have a real chance and wouldn't settle
4) weak patents explain everything
5) science is my background and therefore I felt much more comfortable being all in for R-it results whereas the law seems much harder to predict as if it can completely change based on 1 small issue or statement (eg: Budoff testifies he prescribes for less than 12 weeks in 5% of his pts and BOOM the door opens to non-infringement - yes, I am really pissed off at that statement)
Neutral signs:
1) no settlement to date is exactly what I would expect JT to do. He has been PAINFULLY patient throughout his time as CEO and it has worked out well so far. I suspect he wasn't going to settle until he had all the pre-trial issues (like the admissibility of R-it data) known to strengthen his negotiating power
2) the fact we have not had any BO offers makes sense to me because even if the chance of losing to the generics is only 5% that is a 5% chance that as the purchasing CEO you look like a complete ass for buying a company whose value immediately drops in half before the ink drys.
The next 24 hours are going to be very stressful for me. If no settlement tomorrow I plan to take 15% off the table by Jan 31st in the unlikely but possible event we drop to single digits by April.
Please feel free to tear my theory apart and convince me the patents are rock solid, I will sleep ALOT BETTER!!!
GL
FYI: I invested in this stock in Oct 2013 (pre-adcom) with a plan to get out in 3-4 months. Its now 2020 WTF!!!! Please make it stop.
AI
