Manibiotech:
You are correct----at this stage. Even after approval, assuming it happens, I doubt very much that anyone would offer $22B.
When I talked with Les several years ago and when the share price was about $12.50, I recall that the MC was around $1.2 Billion. At that time O/S would derivatively have been about 100Million(perhaps more, fully diluted, but I do not remember). Anyway, I asked Les whether management would ever consider a BO. Les said that anything is on the table and for an offer that could not be refused, yes, there would be interest. I then facetiously asked whether $50 per share, after approvals by the FDA, would constitute an offer management could not refuse. At that time, this would mean about a $5 Billion MC. Les, with an edge to his voice, said in no uncertain terms that this would not be such an offer and no, the company would not be interested. Such a price would not be reflective of what they have. When I asked what would constitute an "interesting" offer he said he was not going to speculate but certainly $50 per share was not it.
Even an offer of 2x or $100/share would mean an MC of about $10 billion which I guess might have been interesting to NWBO management. However, at least at that time, I doubt that management was considering a BO valued at over $20B. Perhaps management sentiment has changed since that time.
Anyway, I was an investor in AVNR which had an FDA approved drug for PBA, a disorder involving uncontrolled laughter. I bought the stock at about $2. The drug was the only one that could deal effectively with this disorder but the share price languished at around the $2 level for some years. I got tired of holding it and felt that for a non-lethal condition where TAM was very small, it was not worth holding onto. Well, not long after I sold out, the stock started to rise and the company ended up being acquired for about $17 per share.
IMHO, what NWBO MAY have(we don't really know until unblinding and further analysis, but the odds seem to favour a positive trial outcome for reasons that have been discussed ad nauseum) is a paradigm changing therapy for a horrible and deadly disease--GBM--where little progress has been made over the past 15 years. This paradigm, if the trial is positive, will fundamentally affect how GBM is treated and indeed all or at least many solid tumours. The paradigm is far reaching and could serve as a platform in preparing and arming the immune system to effectively engage with many diseases other than solid tumour cancers(either newly developed or recurrent). This may be a fundamental break-through in how medicine will treat a broad array of diseases. DC VAX may be a platform for many indications, a holy grail for pharmaceutical companies looking for an extremely robust pipeline to add to their portfolios. This is what Les believes they have(no guarantees he has caveated as any lawyer would say). Thus, a very high price tag which BP is not now willing to pay at least until they see convincing evidence. The difference between a PBA drug and DC VAX is one in kind, not degree. If you have any experience with GBM, you will know that it is horrible. Patients are desperate. Any hint that this therapy might prolong life and with a better QOL with ease of administration, you can bet, with certainty, that desperate demand will be off the charts. Had I known about it back in 2006~2007, I would have moved heaven and earth to get it and NO price would have been too high. I will bet you that many if not all those who are afflicted with this terrible disease would do the same thing. A positive out come on the trial will engender an avalanche of desperate demand. The issue will be supply, not demand. And....it is a very good bet that patients will opt for DC VAX rather than the helmet assuming even equal efficacy across the spectrum of GBM classifications, a pattern which both therapies appear to be following. If DC VAX proves to provide even better results further out than Optune, it may certainly become the adjuvant therapy of first choice and an important part of SOC as a mono/combo therapy.
I think the key for trial success is the length, robustness and spectrum reach of the tail. For example, if DC VAX L is very effective for M+ and additively for MES and thus addresses about 50% of all stage IV GBMs where it is very effective, overall OS 60 survival is 20% or better and in certain sub-classifications is even higher and is also shown to have an effect on other classifications although not as robust, I think this is a home-run. I do not think that the initial endpoints in PFS and OS are as important, although Iwasadiver believes PFS will have a successful showing. He is not alone among a number of physicians with whom I have discussed this endpoint. While I think that there will be sufficient arms separation wrt OS, it would not be necessarily bad if there were none significant as this may suggest effectiveness of the vaccine even in cases of late vaccinations and lack of a second surgery after progression. Very suggestive for rGBM which has a much more abbreviated PFS/OS.
Accordingly, I feel that if the trial is roughly successful along the lines I have posited above--and I have reason to believe that DC VAX L has achieved them--then share price appreciation may progress much more quickly than one might think. The question is, in view of the above analysis, why is the stock at nineteen cents? It makes little sense to me but it is what it is---for now anyway. Assuming success, I think TLD could augur a share price anywhere between $1~$2 and this might be conservative. There will be BP interest. JMHO.
