Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[KCSVEN]

But that could be settled and a BO happen simultaneously so basically a BO could happen any minute so the point is rather pointless.

Also BP will know risks, just because this one settles does not mean the next one won't be along in a few months so not doing a BO due to generics means no BO would ever happen in the field of biotech.
BP has bought many companies at billions of dollars that came with 50% chance of never having an approved drug but you think they'll balk at less than 1% chance of a generic suit in this case? Seems unlikely, all analysis from experts I have seen/heard/talked to find the generics will lose case, I have not found any credible analysis that gives generics any chance. MRC says generics will win which is the best indicator they have no shot LOL. BP would want control of the launch they are not going to want to wait until maybe April for a verdict, if a BO was to happen they'd find a settlement generics and Amarin could live with.

The big issue Amarin has GIA is inability to ramp up sales fast enough and keeping costs down as they ramp, they have to spend way more than BP would to increase sales. So Vascepa is more profitable to BP than Amarin as a stand alone. For example BO would have a profit on Vascepa sales in 2020, Amarin projects they will break even, maybe.

So street needs to see them prove it. This will take all of 2020 to do, a year is a long time, a lot can happen, AKA more risk, thus the stock has temporarily peaked.

In 2 years with successful GIA we are higher for sure but company needs to do 1 billion in 2020 if we want to see $25-30 by end of THIS year. We may get to see if they are up for the task if no BO but street is basing price action on managements own guidance. If they solidly guided 1 billion with that increase in SG&A we'd be back near 25.