Tomorrow is the last day of the fiscal 2020 third quarter for Dr. Reddy's
Is there any chance they'll want to be able to take a settlement gain in Q3 to make their bottom line look better?
No. At least, very unlikely, but like Marzan's eternal Monday morning optimism, it could happen. Maintaining the open
litigation is a great excuse for explaining away a few bottom line issues.
"Like the Seattle Mariners, 2019 was a building year. Our litigation with Amarin paves the way for our generic entry into a multi-billion dollar market, with high demand for our generic EPA for the foreseeable future. Like the 2020 Mariners, we see this as the year we win our World Series!"
Okay, maybe the M's are a poor analogy, but unless they score a $20 million+ settlement today or tomorrow--which strikes me as beyond unlikely--the accretion to their bottom line isn't worth rushing over. They'd do better to wait until closer to the trial gets going, or even is underway, to get the best deal possible. I think the judge has been clear enough to date that they may settle just ahead of going to trial, rather than get more insights from the judge on her likely ruling. To date those have been pretty favorable to Amarin's case, though not in a prejudicial way...
One reason I may be wrong on my 'No' response, though, is if there is some advantage for Amarin to settle by year's end. I don't see it, but haven't thought about it much.