Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[HDGabor]

If Dr Reddy prevails we are toast in the US

Yes

but still have 11 yrs exclusivity in the EU

10 (8+2 … " eight-year period of data protection and a ten year period of marketing protection"), the 11th is optional … could be but "during the first eight years of those ten years, the marketing authorisation holder obtains an authorisation for one or more new therapeutic indications which, during the scientific evaluation prior to their authorisation, are held to bring a significant clinical benefit in comparison with existing therapies"

The odds of this happening ( Dr Reddy prevailing ) are less than 15%

Acc. to Jacob S. Sherkow:

many of the generic claims already abandoned or invalidated by the court and his view of settlement as probable or a high ~85% likelihood that AMRN could win outright … Generics' arguments have been substantially narrowed by the Judge, leaving only two arguments of either obviousness or non-infringement, both of which are weak … A settlement would be best for all parties, but the lawyer noted recent developments with one party cut against the possibility of settling … low probability Dr. Reddy's or Hikma win the case