Unfortunately the market has spoken...the recent SA article which stated the market factored the recent FDA approval into the sp was obviously correct as we watched the stock pull back after the fda announcement. To my own detriment I am a undying bull but I really thought the new label would send this stock into orbit, and I waited 10 years for that to happen. It did not last more than a few hours. The market feels a $8 billion market cap for a company with $450 million in sales is a fair valuation, and I find it hard to disagree. The market doesn't care about potential, and as of now the naysayers seem correct that the problems outweigh the rewards. Where are the corporate and retail investors and funds buying to support the stock price? And no public buyout offers, not one?? It defies common sense. Don't give me that potential buyers are waiting for the patent situation to be sorted out, that is just nonsense. A value can be ascertained which factors that in....but for some strange reason none have.
Now hopeful investors are committed to another few years with this stock in the hope that it will deliver better returns. Based on my cost average of $11/share I could have made a better return on my money by investing in a conservative mutual fund. Unless your average cost is under $8/share you are in the same boat, missing out on the biggest bull market this country has seen for the last decade by investing your money in this stock.
The guidance for next year is low and I expect the company will exceed guidance. However as Amrn doubles it sales force from 400 to 800 reps and now has an expanded label they didn't double their guidance YoY. Strange? Yes. And even though this year 2019 they increased their guidance and will pull in roughly $450 million in sales, they didn't revise it up hundreds of millions of dollars and they were pretty close to their original guidance numbers ( I think we are talking exceeding original guidance by about 10%). This leads me to believe that they won't be that far off in 2020, and $1 billion or more in sales will happen in 2021, not 2020.
The only hope for an increasing stock price in the short term is extremely huge sales execution by far exceeding $1 billion in sales in 2020 (not likely) or buyout offers with competing bids. If not, we will be waiting and waiting and waiting while the day traders torture us.
