Please correct me if something I believe here is wrong. I believe that for each patient in the trial they already know what patient population they should be put in. I believe they know how long they lived before progression was noted, and for those where they could differentiate, was it pseudoprogression, then actual progression if it later occurred. If they passed on they know when. They also know if they did receive the vaccine by reaching the second round of treatment as a crossed over patient, or not.
What they don't know is who initially received the vaccine, and who didn't. When they unblind the trial they'll learn who received the vaccine from the initial treatment. They will also want to verify that all who were living the last time they checked still are, or if anyone has passed away, and if so when.
I believe at that time they'll have all they need to announce top line data, as well as to create the full documentation of the trial. I would think that it might take a few days to attempt to communicate with all who're still living in the trial, and perhaps one or two might initially be called LTFU in order to announce TLD, but they'll be found by the time the complete data is reported. In short, TLD is a few paragraphs which describes in summary what they see on unblinding the trial, it certainly can conclude that patients had a substantial benefit, but it won't tell people all they would like to know, that comes when all the data is presented for peer review at a conference, like ASCO, or in a major technical publication.
In short, after unblinding I believe it could be a week or two to announce top line data, but I cannot see a month or more, as some here seem to think.
The unblinding might be occurring right now, and if so, some of the clinician and patients alive in the trial may be on vacation, so that could add a little time, but if that's the case, they'll be back shortly after New Year's. I believe that before the end of January we could be much happier investors.
Happy Holiday's all,
Gary
