Marzan,
The THOR buyout is impressive, but remember, it's just over $2 billion and they have 30+ million shares outstanding. We have over half a billion shares outstanding, and with the conversions of warrants, etc. we are near a billion. A $2 billion buyout would bring us $2+ in share price, if we're looking for $20, it will take a $20 billion offer unless the company reduces the number of shares.
I certainly don't want a reverse split, but if a partner came in with substantial funds, a share buyback might bring the numbers down somewhat, but we're still probably going to have half a billion or more. If we had the O/S at half a billion, we'd need a $10 billion offer for a $20 share price. It's certainly possible in a couple years, but I don't see it happening next year.
Of course I've left out something that could be very important, emotion. If some major press exposure was given to DCVax-L, major national news, a front page story in the likes of the Wall St. Journal or NY Times, etc no telling how high the stock could go as people see the cheap share prices, and fail to recognize how large the O/S is. If emotion did drive the price to $5, $10, or more, while I typically am not a swing trader, I would change my way of thinking and probably consider establishing a trailing stop loss position in all my shares. I'd raise them as the stock was moving up, and look to buy back in when the market cap was back to the couple billion area, where I believe it belongs after solid news from Phase 3. There is no telling how high emotion can take a stock, years ago a NY Times article on Judah Folkman curing mice took a single digit stock to over $100, it wasn't long before it came back down to earth.
Most here know I've been involved with IMGN essentially since it became public. It's risen to over $40 and fallen to below $1 over all these years. I still believe in it's potential, but today its market cap is back under $1 billion in the belief that a new approved drugs is still years off. The previously approved drug, Kadcyla, has been totally monetized, so no further financial benefits will be seen from it. My point is that success in the clinic can only bring stock success when it brings in substantial and routinely growing revenue. In IMGN's case, the needs for funds now resulted in forfeiting all future fund growth. As much as I dislike dilution, IMGN would have been better off maintaining it's milestone and royalty income through dilution and/or partnerships. NWBO certainly has diluted, but in doing so, it's not given away its intellectual property.
Gary
