NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[meirluc]

I certainly don't know, but I believe that much has been learned in the trial that would increase longevity if it were initiated today. It's speculation that the last group to enter the trial have greater percentages alive than those at the same point in the earlier trial. If true, future patients may have a 50% shot at living 5 years or longer, ten times that of the SOC today. As I understand it, 31 patients were initiated after the hold, now more than 4 years ago, if more than 16 of them are still alive, the odds are pretty good that half of them will reach 5 years, the K-M curve should tell that tale.

Gary, I agree with most of what you are writing but I disagree that "it's speculation that the last group to enter the trial have greater percentages alive than those at the same point in the earlier trial".

That depends on how you define the last group that entered the trial. If we are talking about the last 108 to enter the trial than yes, they demonstrated a much better survival capacity through the first 36 months than did the 223 previously enrolled patients.

As you may recall, the 2018 SNO update of the publication claimed that 28.2% of the trial (about 93 patients) ended up as post 36(+) months survivors. The original 2018 publication stated that 44 of the first 182 were post 36(+) months survivors. Furthermore, according to the 2018 publication 7 of the 41 patients who followed the first 182 were alive for 30-36 months on trial. Even if all the last 7 patients became post 36 months survivors, you would have at most 51 (44+7) post 36(+) months survivors who originated from the first 223 patients. That is a maximum long liver success rate of 22.9% (51X100/223=22.9)


Since we ended up with about 93 post 36 months survivors, a remaining minimum of 42 long livers must have originated from the last 108 to be enrolled which is a long liver success rate of 38.9% (42X100/108=38.9). The success rate of the last 1/3 of the trial (108 patients) was almost twice that of the first 2/3 of the trial (223 patients).